Alexandria rent decline cited in White House release; economists credit construction boom, not policy

Administration's cited source attributes trend to record apartment deliveries; DC region is only major metro losing jobs

The White House issued a press release Monday crediting President Trump’s housing policies for national rents falling to a four-year low, citing news coverage from 19 local markets—including Alexandria—as evidence.

Housing economists point to a different explanation: a record wave of apartment construction that began years before Trump took office. And in the Washington region, new federal data shows a sharp economic contraction that may also be contributing to softening demand.

What the data shows

National rents have fallen for six consecutive months, according to Apartment List, the source cited in the White House release. The national median rent is down 6.2 percent from its 2022 peak.

The same Apartment List report identifies the cause: “The most important driver behind the soft market conditions that have persisted for three years is a historic surge of multifamily construction.”

Developers delivered more than 600,000 apartment units in 2024—the most since 1986—followed by roughly 500,000 in 2025, according to the report. The national vacancy rate has risen to 7.3 percent, a record high in Apartment List’s index.

Those projects were permitted and financed years before the current administration. Completing a multifamily development typically takes 18 months or more after permits are issued, according to Robert Dietz, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders.

The White House release attributes the trend to “President Trump’s comprehensive approach to housing—increasing supply, reducing bureaucratic barriers, and empowering builders to meet demand.” No major federal housing legislation has been enacted since January 2025.

What the cited coverage says

The press release links to 19 local news stories as evidence. The Alexandria citation is an ALXnow report from January 2 in which reporter Scott McCaffrey attributed the city’s 2.5 percent rent decline to seasonal market cycles. Apartment List analysts quoted in the story pointed to “a particularly slow summer.” The story does not mention federal policy.

Another cited story, from KRQE-TV in Santa Fe, carries the headline: “More apartment units built in Santa Fe lowering rent prices city-wide”—crediting local construction.

The “renter-friendly” quote highlighted in the White House release—”2026 is shaping up to be one of the more renter-friendly periods we’ve seen in a decade”—comes from a CNBC story that attributes the trend to “high vacancies and a wave of new apartments still coming onto the market.”

The regional picture

Bureau of Labor Statistics data released January 27 showed the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metro area was the only large metro in the country to experience job losses over the past year—down 48,500 positions, a 1.4 percent decline. All 55 other metros with populations over one million were growing or flat.

The District of Columbia’s unemployment rate has risen to 6.7 percent, the highest in the nation. Federal unemployment insurance spending is up 215 percent in Virginia and 543 percent in D.C. compared to last year, according to the Richmond Federal Reserve.

City Manager James Parajon told the Alexandria City Council on January 13 that “continued uncertainty, primarily related to some of the federal administration policies and practices,” was affecting the local economy. Twenty percent of Alexandria’s workforce holds federal jobs—approximately 13,000 residents.

The administration’s Department of Government Efficiency initiative has overseen the departure of more than 300,000 federal employees since January 2025, which one analyst described as the largest peacetime workforce reduction in over 75 years.

Local housing data reflects the shift. November home sales in Alexandria fell 11 percent year-over-year. Active listings jumped nearly 50 percent. Properties are averaging 32 days on market, up from 24 days a year ago.

“People particularly are concerned about their financial well-being and their job prospects or job security,” Parajon said.

Local housing efforts

Alexandria has undertaken its own efforts to expand housing supply.

The city exceeded its 2013 Housing Master Plan goal of creating 2,000 affordable units by 2025, with more than 3,500 units in development, under construction, or completed as of mid-2024. On January 24, City Council passed a zoning text amendment to streamline office-to-residential conversions, responding to the region’s elevated office vacancy rate.

Projects in the pipeline include 640 units at Potomac Yard, 815 units at the former Potomac River Generating Station site, and 474 units—most of them affordable—in Arlandria. An office building at 1201 E. Abingdon Drive is being converted to 144 apartments.

Tariffs and construction costs

The administration has also imposed tariffs on building materials that industry groups say are raising construction costs.

The National Association of Home Builders estimates current tariffs add $10,900 to the cost of a typical new home. Canadian softwood lumber, which accounts for 85 percent of lumber imports, now faces a 45 percent duty. Steel and aluminum tariffs are at 50 percent.

“The administration’s move to impose 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum products imports into the U.S. runs totally counter to this goal by raising home building costs,” NAHB Chairman Carl Harris said on February 12, 2025, after the White House announced the tariffs would take effect in March.

The Center for American Progress projects that tariff-driven cost increases will result in 450,000 fewer homes built through 2030.

What analysts expect

Housing forecasters expect current conditions to be temporary as the construction pipeline shrinks.

“Demand for apartments will rise as supply falls in 2026, leading to rising rents in many metro areas,” Redfin predicted in its 2026 housing outlook. “Nationwide, we expect rents to rise about 2% to 3% year over year by the end of 2026.”

“We believe there are limits on what the President can do in 2026 to boost housing,” TD Cowen housing policy analyst Jaret Sieberg wrote to clients, CNN reported in December.

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The White House press release is here. Apartment List’s national rent data is here.