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Alexandria City Public Schools enrolled 15,928 students this fall, a 2.5% decline from the prior year that represents the largest enrollment drop since the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the district’s annual membership report being presented to the school board on Thursday.
The 407-student decline from fall 2024’s enrollment of 16,335 continues a regional trend. Data presented at a Nov. 18 work session showed Fairfax County down 3,000 students, Montgomery County down 2,600, Loudoun County down 1,000, and Arlington County down 300.
The district had projected 16,545 students for 2025-26 but came in 617 students short, a 96.27% accuracy rate. That compares to near-perfect projection accuracy in the prior two years — 99.93% in 2024-25 and 101.76% in 2023-24.
High school enrollment saw the steepest percentage decline, falling 212 students for a 4.6% drop. Alexandria City High School enrolled 4,422 students compared to 4,634 the prior year. Elementary schools lost 185 students across grades K-5, a 2.2% decline. Middle school enrollment remained relatively flat, dropping just 10 students, or 0.3%.
The enrollment data comes as the district navigates significant budget uncertainty. Staff are developing a $340.4 million capital improvement plan while tracking 14 major residential developments expected to generate more than 1,000 additional students over the next four years — students not yet reflected in current projections.
Demographic snapshot
Despite the enrollment decline, the district remains diverse and high-need. Students come from 119 countries and speak 130 native languages. Hispanic students represent the largest demographic group at 37.1%, followed by White students at 27.5%, Black students at 23%, and Asian students at 6.6%.
English Learners account for 37.6% of enrollment, and students with disabilities make up 12.4%, totaling 1,971 students.
Economic need data shows reporting gap
About 45% of students are eligible for SNAP benefits based on federal data released in October, but district officials say that figure understates actual need.
Federal law prohibits families at schools participating in the Community Eligibility Provision program — which provides free meals to all students regardless of income — from completing standard free and reduced meal applications. As a result, the federal economically disadvantaged percentage does not capture all qualifying families.
The district addresses this through a separate CEP Income Verification Survey, with results reported in the Spring Student Record Collection each March. Historical data shows the spring percentage typically runs 4-6 percentage points higher than the federal October figure. Last year, the federal rate was 47% while the spring rate came in at 51%.
The Fall Student Record Collection showed 54% of students as economically disadvantaged based on September 30 data, which includes families still within a 30-day grace period to submit applications and maintain prior-year eligibility until the federal deadline.
What’s next
The Fall Membership Report fulfills Virginia statutory requirements and informs budget planning. The school board will receive the data as an information item on Thursday and is not expected to take action.
The board meets at 6 p.m. at 1340 Braddock Place.
Ryan Belmore
