Forecasters watching weekend winter storm; snow totals remain uncertain

A winter storm forming over the Southern United States could bring significant snow to Alexandria this weekend, and city crews are already preparing for the potential impact.

Snow could begin late Saturday or early Sunday and continue into Monday, according to The Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang. The National Weather Service wrote Tuesday that “confidence in accumulating snow this weekend continues to increase, but there is still a wide range of possible outcomes.”

NWS forecast for Alexandria

The National Weather Service forecast for Alexandria as of Tuesday afternoon:

• Friday: Slight chance of snow before 1 p.m., high near 39, 20% chance of precipitation
• Friday night: Low around 13
• Saturday: Chance of snow after 1 p.m., high near 20, 40% chance
• Saturday night: Snow, low around 15, 80% chance
• Sunday: Snow, high near 22, 80% chance
• Sunday night: Chance of snow, low around 11, 40% chance

What the models show

Projections for the Beltway area range from about 1 inch (American model) to more than 15 inches (UKMet), with most models clustering around 8 to 10 inches, the Capital Weather Gang reported.

AccuWeather projects about 3.6 inches total — on the lower end.

WUSA9 meteorologist Topper Shutt wrote that this will be a “pure snow event” with light, fluffy accumulation, and that the heaviest snow is expected south of D.C.

Why the uncertainty

Two weather systems must merge for the storm to deliver heavy snow: a disturbance from California and another diving south from Canada. A strong area of high pressure could push the storm south, sparing the D.C. area.

The NWS Weather Prediction Center wrote Tuesday that “confidence continues to trend higher for an impactful system developing,” but added that “the timing, track and strength of this winter storm continues to remain uncertain.”

Bitter cold expected

Whatever snow falls will stick around. Highs on Saturday may struggle to reach 20 degrees, which would challenge calendar-day records. Highs next week are forecast in the 20s with overnight lows in the teens and single digits.

AccuWeather warned that “extended time outside can lead to hypothermia” and that “unprotected pipes may freeze.” Wind chills near or below zero are possible.

What to do now

The City of Alexandria said Tuesday that crews are “monitoring and preparing for this weekend’s forecast snow storm.”

If the city manager declares a snow emergency, parking will be prohibited on snow emergency routes, including King Street, Washington Street, Duke Street, Route 1, Braddock Road, and Eisenhower Avenue. Vehicles may be towed at the owner’s expense.

Property owners are required to clear sidewalks within 24 to 72 hours after snowfall ends, depending on storm severity. Failure to comply can result in a $50 fine.

Residents can track plowing status on the city’s SnowReport system and sign up for eNews alerts. For questions, call 311.

The storm could cause school delays or closures early next week. Higher confidence in the forecast is expected by Thursday or Friday.