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ALEXANDRIA, Va. — Northern Virginia business leaders are feeling more confident about the regional economy heading into the second half of 2026, with optimism reaching its highest point in nearly a year and plans for layoffs hitting a record low, according to a new survey released Wednesday.
The Q2 2026 NVC/Pinkston Northern Virginia Business Leader Survey, conducted June 22-29 among 185 CEOs, corporate executives and business owners, found that 40% of respondents expect the Northern Virginia economy to grow over the next six months — the highest share since Q3 2025. Just 6% said they anticipate needing to reduce headcount, the lowest figure since the survey launched in Q1 2025.
About 18% of respondents are based in Alexandria, making the city the third-largest represented geography in the survey behind Fairfax County (40%) and Prince William County (20%).
Individual business sentiment also improved markedly. Three-quarters of respondents — 76% — said they are very or somewhat optimistic about their own company's performance in the near future, up from 67% in Q1. Meanwhile, 90% said they plan to stay about the same or increase hiring over the next six months, up from 83% in Q1.
"This quarter's optimism about the regional economy is the highest since Q3 of 2025," said D.J. Jordan, senior vice president at Pinkston. "That early 2025 optimism soon gave way to uncertainty around DOGE, the government shutdown, AI disruption, and the president's tariff negotiations, but this year, business leaders are feeling better about a more predictable landscape."
The survey also found that more business leaders plan to increase capital spending significantly than at any point since the survey began.
On policy, business leaders identified reducing taxes (35%) and keeping right-to-work (31%) as their top two priorities for Gov. Abigail Spanberger and the General Assembly — increases of 3 and 11 percentage points respectively from Q1. Housing affordability and reducing regulation each came in at 22%, followed by transportation and infrastructure investments at 20%.
The legislation causing the most concern among respondents was the potential repeal of the data center sales and use tax exemption, cited by 27%, followed by minimum wage increases (19%) and paid family and medical leave (14%).
Despite improving sentiment, skepticism about state policymakers remains significant. Some 44% of business leaders said state legislators and policymakers in Richmond do not understand or really don't understand their local business operations — down from 50% in Q1, but still the dominant view. Only 17% said policymakers understand their operations well or very well, though that figure is up from 10% in Q1.
"Northern Virginia's business leaders tell us they are eager to be part of policy conversations that help shape solutions," said Julie Coons, president and CEO of the Northern Virginia Chamber of Commerce.
Northern Virginia's economic footprint is substantial: the region's $321 billion GDP represents nearly 42% of Virginia's total economy and accounts for 46% of the greater Washington regional economy — larger than the GDP of 24 states.
The full Q2 report is available at nvcbusiness.org.
